Iraq: An Exit Strategy
“The United States needs a new strategy in Iraq and the Persian Gulf. The war is at best a stalemate; the large American presence now causes more trouble than it prevents. We must disengage from Iraq—and we must do it by removing most American and allied military units within 18 months. Though disengagement has risks and costs, they can be managed. The consequences would not be worse for the United States than the present situation, and capabilities for dealing with them are impressive, if properly employed.”
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March 9th, 2006 @ 9:45 pm
The Posen plan is a totally weak and ineffective plan that will surely fail. I have challenged Prof. Posen to debate me on the issues-all those blog administrators out here who love to sell this plan-maybe you could find a way to get to Barry with my message.
The plan I am sending you has been approved by many prominent thinkers and activists in the field. Which includes: Benjamin Ferencz, Chief Prosecutor at the Nuremburg Trials, Tom Hayden, Matthew Rothschild, Danny Schecter, Tony Benn- Former Member of the British parliment ,Reggie Rivers, Robert Jenkins, Andrew Bard Schmookler and others.
I formulated this plan in September 2004, based on a comprehensive study of the issues. For my plan to be successful it must be implemented with all seven points beginning to happen within a very short period of time.
I have run up against a wall of doubt about my plan due to it’s rational nature ,and due to it’s adherence to placing the blame on the invaders, and then trying to formulate a process of extrication which would put all entities in this conflict face to face, to begin to finally solve the dilemmas that exist.
If you read my plan you will see that it is guided by a reasonable and practical compromise that could end this war and alleviate the internecine civil violence that is confronting Iraq at this juncture in it’s history.
I am making a plea for my plan to be put into action on a wide-scale.
I need you to circulate it and use all the persuasion you have to bring it to the attention of those in power.
Just reading my plan and sending off an e-mail to me that you received it will not be enough.
This war must end-we who oppose it can do this by using my plan.
We must fight the power and end the killing.
If you would like to view some comments and criticism about my plan I direct you to my blog: sevenpointman
Thank you my dear friends,
Howard Roberts
A Seven-point plan for an Exit Strategy in Iraq
1) A timetable for the complete withdrawal of American and British forces must be announced.
I envision the following procedure, but suitable fine-tuning can be applied by all the people involved.
A) A ceasefire should be offered by the Occupying side to representatives of both the Sunni insurgency and the Shiite community. These representatives would be guaranteed safe passage, to any meetings. The individual insurgency groups would designate who would attend.
At this meeting a written document declaring a one-month ceasefire, witnessed by a United Nations authority, will be fashioned and eventually signed. This document will be released in full, to all Iraqi newspapers, the foreign press, and the Internet.
B) US and British command will make public its withdrawal, within sixth-months of 80 % of their troops.
C) Every month, a team of United Nations observers will verify the effectiveness of the ceasefire. All incidences on both sides will be reported.
D) Combined representative armed forces of both the Occupying nations and the insurgency organizations that agreed to the cease fire will protect the Iraqi people from actions by terrorist cells.
E) Combined representative armed forces from both the Occupying nations and the insurgency organizations will begin creating a new military and police force. Those who served, without extenuating circumstances, in the previous Iraqi military or police, will be given the first option to serve.
F) After the second month of the ceasefire, and thereafter, in increments of 10-20% ,a total of 80% will be withdrawn, to enclaves in Qatar and Bahrain. The governments of these countries will work out a temporary
land-lease housing arrangement for these troops. During the time the troops will be in these countries they will not stand down, and can be re-activated in the theater, if both the chain of the command still in Iraq, the newly formed Iraqi military, the leaders of the insurgency, and two international ombudsman (one from the Arab League, one from the United Nations), as a majority, deem it necessary.
G) One-half of those troops in enclaves will leave three-months after they arrive, for the United States or other locations, not including Iraq.
H) The other half of the troops in enclaves will leave after six-months.
I) The remaining 20 % of the Occupying troops will, during this six month interval, be used as peace-keepers, and will work with all the designated organizations, to aid in reconstruction and nation-building.
J) After four months they will be moved to enclaves in the above mentioned countries. They will remain, still active, for two month, until their return to the States, Britain and the other involved nations.
2) At the beginning of this period the United States will file a letter with the Secretary General of the Security Council of the United Nations, making null and void all written and proscribed orders by the CPA, under R. Paul Bremer. This will be announced and duly noted.
3) At the beginning of this period all contracts signed by foreign countries will be considered in abeyance until a system of fair bidding, by both Iraqi and foreign countries, will be implemented ,by an interim Productivity and Investment Board, chosen from pertinent sectors of the Iraqi economy. Local representatives of the 18 provinces of Iraq will put this board together, in local elections.
4) At the beginning of this period, the United Nations will declare that Iraq is a sovereign state again, and will be forming a Union of 18 autonomous regions. Each region will, with the help of international experts, and local bureaucrats, do a census as a first step toward the creation of a municipal government for all 18 provinces. After the census, a voting roll will be completed. Any group that gets a list of 15% of the names on this census will be able to nominate a slate of representatives.
When all the parties have chosen their slates, a period of one-month will be allowed for campaigning. Then in a popular election the group with the most votes will represent that province.
When the voters choose a slate, they will also be asked to choose five individual members of any of the slates. The individuals who have the five highest vote counts will represent a National government. This whole process, in every province, will be watched by international observers as well as the local bureaucrats.
During this process of local elections, a central governing board, made up of United Nations, election governing experts, insurgency organizations, US and British peacekeepers, and Arab league representatives, will assume the temporary duties of administering Baghdad, and the central duties of governing.
When the ninety representatives are elected they will assume the legislative duties of Iraq for two years.
Within three months the parties that have at least 15% of the representatives will nominate candidates for President and Prime Minister.
A national wide election for these offices will be held within three months from their nomination.
The President and the Vice President and the Prime Minister will choose their cabinet, after the election.
5) All debts accrued by Iraq will be rescheduled to begin payment, on the principal after one year, and on the interest after two years. If Iraq is able to handle another loan during this period she should be given a grace period of two years, from the taking of the loan, to comply with any structural adjustments.
6) The United States and the United Kingdom shall pay Iraq reparations for its invasion in the total of 120 billion dollars over a period of twenty years for damages to its infrastructure. This money can be defrayed as investment, if the return does not exceed 6.5 %.
7) During the beginning period Saddam Hussein and any other prisoners who are deemed by a Council of Iraqi Judges, elected by the National representative body, as having committed crimes will be put up for trial. The trial of Saddam Hussein will be before seven judges, chosen from this Council of Judges. One judge, one jury, again chosen by this Council, will try all other prisoners. All defendants will have the right to present any evidence they want, and to
choose freely their own lawyers.
March 10th, 2006 @ 11:40 am
Good grief – now we have a plan-war! So many plans, so little action.
Personally, I favor Murtha’s approach – just do it – 6 months is plenty of time to safely disengage our troops and complete the training of the Iraq defense forces.
Keeping our troops there for 18 months, supposedly so that they can act to prevent a civil war and also so that they can train Iraqi troops and protect Iraq from invasion by its neighbors, is a totally ridiculous concept. Our troops can do nothing to stop a civil war from developing – in fact, the author acknowledges that our troops are escalating the civil war – and in the recent outbreak of violence, our troops were confined to hunkering down on their bases while the Iraqi’s blew up each other’s mosques. And as for protecting Iraq from its neighbors, US air power in the region is just going to have to make do – we’re never going to allow Iraq to build a large army with technically advanced weapons.
Mr. Roberts’plan is way too complicated and depends on the cooperation of way too many factions and governments to be workable.
As the Nike commercial says, “Just do it!” It won’t be so hard.
March 10th, 2006 @ 5:07 pm
Bill-
Murtha’s plan does not outline a method of getting out-he just indicates that we should be out within six months. A premature exit, without solidifying some elements of cooperation from the factions that are fighting against our occupation is wrong. We need to withdraw as soon as possible-my plan will have all troops out in about 8 months, while addressing issues of reparations, developing municipal federalism, decoupling us from the process of controling the flow of capital, how to try those who commited war crimes during Saddam Husseins regime,etc.
This will take a diligent and direct honesty that will create the space for the iraqis to rebuild the society we destroyed.
Only when we begin to disengage and let the real defenders of Iraq, the insurgents, who are fighting to maintain the soveriegnty and honor of their state, will it be possible to see the end to sectarian violence and the beginning of a new path for Iraq.
My plan is comprehensive and simple.
We did it.
Now get out-after you fix what you broke.
And stop interfering in the daily lives of the Iraqis.