From Jeff Masters:

“Gustav roared over Cuba’s Isle of Youth at 2 pm today, and is now clobbering the western tip of Cuba with 145 mph Cat 4 winds and a storm surge estimated at 18-23 feet. This will be a massive disaster for Cuba, as portions of the stretch of coast to the right of where Gustav will make landfall are heavily populated (Figure 2). Furthermore, Gustav’s hurricane-force winds extend out 60 miles from the eye, meaning that the western reaches of the capital city of Havana will receive a formidable blow. Havana’s construction is fairly dilapidated, and Category 1 hurricane winds will do heavy damage. Adding to the catastrophe will be rainfall amounts of up to 25 inches, causing dangerous fresh-water flooding. Gustav is likely to be one of the five most damaging hurricanes in Cuban history. Fortunately, Cuba has a top-notch hurricane civil defense operation, and I’m confident they have gotten all of the population at risk out of harm’s way.”

See the loop of Gustav crossing western Cuba.

Warning that Hurricane Gustav is the “mother of all storms,” Mayor Ray Nagin late Saturday ordered a mandatory evacuation of the West Bank of New Orleans for 8 a.m. Sunday and the east bank for noon.

“We want 100 percent evacuation,” Nagin said. “It has the potential to impact every area of this metropolitan area.”

Katrina had a footprint of about 400 miles, he said. Gustav is about 900 miles and growing, Nagin said.

“This is worse than a Betsy, worse than a Katrina,” he said.

Todd Kimberlain, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center, said he’s not sure what Nagin meant by the storm’s footprint. However, he said, “if he means the area of most severe impact, it’s not a fair comparison at this point.”

“It’s not possible to calculate the area of most severe impact at this moment,” Kimberlain said, “so we can’t make a comparison.”

The mayor speculated that Gustav is so fierce Baton Rouge likely will experience 100 mph winds.

“You need to be scared and you need to get your butts out of New Orleans right now,” Nagin said.

Nagin said he expects Gustav to “punch holes in the Harvey Canal,” which could cause the West Bank to become a bathtub.

The West Bank has 8-foot to 10-foot-high protection, he said. Gustav’s storm surge may be 15 to 24 feet high.

Anyone who opts to remain in New Orleans “will be on your own,” Nagin warned, adding that services will not be available.

Because of the potential severity of Gustav, Nagin said the city would continue to operate 17 bus pick-up sites in New Orleans until midnight Saturday. The service, designed to evacuate residents who lack transportation or need assistance, will resume Sunday at 6 a.m.and continue until at least noon.

Nagin Orders 100% Evacuation

Following storms